Philip Blumel: Will we break the record for uncontested races in 2024? Hi, I’m Philip Blumel. Welcome to No Uncertain Terms, the official podcast of the term limits movement, published on September 9th, 2024. This is episode number 246.
Stacey Selleck: Your sanctuary from partisan politics.
Philip Blumel: I heard some politicians say just last week, once again, that we already have term limits. They’re called elections. Ugh. This cliche is so ubiquitous that I have to apologize that I’m going to start off this podcast debunking it yet again. Now, I usually emphasize the lack of rotation in office caused by uncompetitive elections. If you listen to this podcast regularly, you know I mention nearly every episode that in 2022, 100% of incumbent US senators running for their own seat were reelected. The rules are so biased in favor of incumbents that most reelections are simply automatic. The fact is that American elections are not competitive and not a reflection of the preferences of the people.
Philip Blumel: But today, I want to point to some shocking numbers released by the nonpartisan election website, Ballotpedia. That’s a very useful site. Anyway, in the 2024 election cycle, through August, Ballotpedia has covered 34,736 elections in 50 states and territories. Of that total, 26,006, 75%, were uncontested, and 8,730, 25%, were contested. Yes, that’s right. In about 75% of US elections at all levels from dog catcher to US Congress, there is no competition at all, none. In many states this means that the election is simply canceled and no reference to it appears on ballots. It disappears.
Philip Blumel: But in all states, it means that the politician, usually incumbent, of course, simply walks back into office. There is no choice for voters to make. The current year to date rate, 75% uncontested elections, is the second highest rate Ballotpedia has seen at this point in the year since data collection began in 2018. The highest rate of uncontested elections was in 2020 at 78%. So we are on the edge of breaking that record. There are still months to go before the election, and Ballotpedia is still reporting on additional races.
Philip Blumel: Okay, so let’s go back to that hoary old non-sequitur: We already have term limits because we have elections. Well, let’s update it with this new information, okay. We already have term limits because we have elections about 25% of the time. Hmm, not so pithy, eh? To be fair, I have to share some shortcomings of this datum. It includes all potential elections in the Ballotpedia coverage universe, including congressional, state executive, state judicial, and state legislative elections. It also includes local elections in the hundred largest US cities by population, and each state capital as well as elections in 475 school districts.
Philip Blumel: One upward skew is the very high uncontested rate for judges, which is 86%. And this is a position for which term limits are arguably not appropriate, but it also includes school boards, which have a more healthy uncontested rate at just 59%. The bottom line is pointing to elections as a refutation for the need for term limits is ridiculous. Term limits promise competitive elections and rotation in office, and we currently don’t have either, whether we’re having elections or not.
Philip Blumel: And as Ballotpedia points out, there’s a lot fewer elections than people think. But do term limits expand the number of elections and hence voter choice? Yes. Term limits create an open seat election in every district, every eight years or whatever the term limit is. That shows up in the numbers. In nearly all elected positions, open seats attract candidates. Now, if you’re a voter in states with term limits on your state legislature, you can depend on a competitive election in your district at least once every eight years. But that’s the worst case scenario. In Louisiana in 2022, there were zero uncontested races, for example. In Michigan, another term limit state, there were 1% uncontested seats. In California, there were 2% uncontested seats in their state legislature. In Oklahoma, 3%.
Philip Blumel: The average nationwide, which of course includes these low numbers, is 32% uncontested. Now, at the other end of the spectrum, the worst, that is, the highest uncontested rates, are found in states without term limits. Like Alabama, 54% uncontested seats, Kentucky, 55%, South Carolina, 58%, and the big loser, Massachusetts, with 63% uncontested races in their state legislature. Now, a lot of factors affect the uncontested rate, but open seats prompted by term limits or by retirements or deaths or indictments is among the most important. Maybe that old cliche should be rewritten: If we have term limits, we’ll have more elections.
S?: This is a public service announcement.
Philip Blumel: Tony Benn was chair of the British Labour Party and long-time member of Parliament who served as a cabinet member in the 1960s and 1970s. He died in 2014, but is remembered and often quoted for his five part test of a democratic system. Here is Tony Benn posing his famous question sometime in 2001.
Tony Benn: What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interest do you exercise it? To whom are you accountable and how can we get rid of you? And if you can’t get rid of the people who govern you, you don’t live in a democratic system.
Philip Blumel: How do we get rid of you? In weaker democracies than ours that’s the most important question. We reported last week on the fraudulent reelection of Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, on July 28th. Since then, the handpicked Supreme Court certified the results. Nothing to see here, move on. But this would’ve been impossible if not for the work of his mentor, Hugo Chavez, who abolished term limits in 2009 via a fraudulent election, opening the way to permanent power for Chavez and, after his death, his lieutenant, Maduro.
Philip Blumel: In light of this, news from Zimbabwe last week was quite heartening. Zimbabwe is hardly a free country. It’s suffered under the yoke of dictator Robert Mugabe since the 1980s. No term limits there. President Emmerson, pardon me, Mnangagwa took power in Zimbabwe in 2017 after the military intervened to remove Mugabe. But is President Emmerson Mnangagwa just another dictator for life? Maybe not. Listen to this from SABCnews.com.
SABC News: Meanwhile, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa has clarified concerns around his time as leader of that country, addressing the diaspora community in China, where he’s attending the forum for China-Africa Cooperation Summit. Mnangagwa said he’ll be stepping down at the end of his second term. He says it’s not true that he wants to run as president for a third term.
Emmerson Mnangagwa: I’m a constitutionalist.
S5: I have stated that I will follow the law. I will abide by the Constitution. And again, I’m a writer. So those chaps saying I might add more years, no, I won’t do that. I have my mandate I was given by the people. When it expires someone else will come and take their part. So this question of having a third term does not arise, especially under my watch. No, I’m in my second term and I already know even the date. I will step down from the position in 2028.
S?: Compliment, Your Excellency.
Emmerson Mnangagwa: Yes.
Philip Blumel: Yes. The latest iteration of the Zimbabwe constitution has a two-term limit on the president. As the President said, he helped author it and he’s going to live by it.
Philip Blumel: Since the 1990s, many countries in Africa and Latin America have added term limits to their constitutions to protect themselves from would-be dictators. These bad actors know that they have to somehow get around these safeguards like term limits and other institutions that restrain their power. For example, in Rwanda, in 2015, Rwanda held a referendum where the constitution was amended to extend presidential limits limits. President Paul Kagame, who has been in power since 2000, is now allowed to potentially stay in office until 2034.
Philip Blumel: In the Republic of the Congo, the 2015 constitutional amendments removed term limits, allowing President Denis Sassou Nguesso to extend his rule. In Chad, in 2018, Chad’s constitutional amendments removed the two-term limit for the presidency, which allowed President Idriss Déby to stay in power.
Philip Blumel: In Latin America we see the same unwinding process at work. In Bolivia in 2009, the constitution was amended to remove term limits for the presidency, allowing for indefinite reelection. In Nicaragua, term limits were removed by constitutional amendments in 2014, allowing for indefinite reelection. And of course, we’ve been talking about Venezuela, presidential term limits were abolished in 2009.
Philip Blumel: Now, I don’t mean to pick on Latin America. I don’t mean to pick on Africa. Politicians everywhere have the same incentives and the same motivations. They’re just in a different environment with different institutions and different restraints. Do not kid yourself that politicians in Ohio or Michigan or any other legislature where there’s an effort to overturn term limits are motivated by anything else than the quest to retain power and privilege. Don’t touch our term limits.
Stacey Selleck: Like the show? You can help by subscribing and leaving a five-star review on both Apple and Spotify. It’s free.
Philip Blumel: Thanks for joining us for another episode of No Uncertain Terms. The term limits convention bills are moving through the state legislatures. This could be a breakthrough year for the term limits movement. To check on the status of the term limits convention resolution in your state, go to termlimits.com/takeaction. There you will see if it has been introduced and where it stands in the committee process on its way to the floor vote. If there’s action to take, you’ll see a take action button by your state. Click it. This will give you the opportunity to send a message to the most relevant legislators, urging them to support the legislation. They have to know you are watching. That’s termlimits.com/takeaction.
Philip Blumel: If your state has already passed the term limits convention resolution or the bill’s not been introduced in your state, you can still help. Please consider making a contribution to US Term Limits. It’s our aim to hit the reset button on the US Congress, and you can help. Go to termlimits.com/donate, termlimits.com/donate. Thanks. We’ll be back next week.
Stacey Selleck: Find us on most social media @USTermLimits, like us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and now LinkedIn.
S?: USTL.