Philip Blumel: Too close to call. Term limits and the most competitive US Senate races.
Philip Blumel: Hi, I’m Philip Blumel. Welcome to No Uncertain Terms, the official podcast of the Term Limits movement, published on October 21st, 2024. This is episode number 249.
Stacey Selleck: Your sanctuary from partisan politics.
Philip Blumel: The control of the US Senate is up for grabs in 2024, and the contests are tight, tight, tight in a handful of states. Amongst the three tightest, the term limits issue is playing a role at the margins in two of them and is at the margins where these races are going to be decided. Okay, so we have a few tidbits, this episode, for our political junkies out there. Let’s start in Ohio. That’s one that we’re watching, where a challenger, businessman, Bernie Moreno, is neck and neck with long-term incumbent, Sherrod Brown. Now, Bernie Moreno, you may know, is the Ohio state chair of US Term Limits.
Philip Blumel: Yep. So he’s up to ears in this issue. Naturally, he assigned the US Term Limits congressional pledge to co-sponsor and vote for the US Term Limits amendment, and his chances are looking good. Now, I know this changes every day on these close races, but the last polling I saw puts him up just a bit within the margin of error. Now, Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, has made nice sounds about term limits. Oh, but this was way back when he was in the US House decades ago. [chuckle] Oh, he doesn’t like to talk about term limits anymore. Senator Brown has been in various offices for about the last 50 years. He won office first to the Ohio legislature when he was 22 years old back in 1975. So if Moreno wins this one, term limits might just be the deciding factor.
Philip Blumel: In Wisconsin, another business man challenger, Eric Hovde, is basically tied with incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin. Now, once again, in this case, the challenger, Eric Hovde has signed a US Term Limits pledge that he can wave around, and the incumbent has not. These are two key races that will decide the control of the US Senate. There’s another reason why these races are important to term limits supporters. We support competitive elections and rotation office, two benefits of term limits. Well, here we have two very close races with challengers versus incumbents. Now, I remember in 2022, not a single incumbent senator running for his or her own seat lost their election. This is what’s broken about our system and why we need term limits. Well, it’s good to see when we can get this close.
Philip Blumel: The third closest US Senate race is an open seat election for Michigan. However, here, neither candidate is a pledge signer, so it’s a little less interesting to us [chuckle] in this program. But this is the only one of the eight tightest races in the Senate where disagreement about term limits is not a factor at all. In Arizona, Carry Lake is a signer. In Nevada, Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick. In Montana, Tim Sheehy. Now, keep in mind, these are the candidates in these tight races, there’s a lot more in the US Senate they have signed the pledge.
Philip Blumel: Now, notably, also in Texas, there is incumbent Senator Ted Cruz. This race is closer than it was expected to be at the beginning, but it is definitely one in which term limits plays a role. Senator Ted Cruz is not just a pledge signer, he is the sponsor, and has been for a long time, of the US Term Limits Amendment in the US Senate. He’s also the reason that US Term Limits Executive Director, Nick Tomboulides, got his opportunity to speak to the senate sub-committee on the US Constitution a few years back. I think it was 2018. And I think you’ve seen the video from that on YouTube that has gone viral since. This is the one where Nick confront senators with the fact that polling shows that head lice are more popular than the US cities. Well, at US Term Limits, we do not get caught up in election hype. We know that nearly every Congressional incumbent is going to win their seats back and that any change will be around the edges, but these, that we’re talking about today, are the edge cases in the US Senate, and it’s encouraging to us that term limits is an important issue in nearly all of them.
Speaker 3: This is a public service announcement.
Philip Blumel: It’s election season and candidates are drawing sharp distinctions between themselves and their opponents. In this polarized environment, the debates can be fierce, so it is comforting sometimes to hear about an issue upon which opposing candidates actually agree. Even better when that issue is term limits. So, let’s turn to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and some local coverage of the 10th congressional district race there.
Speaker 4: ABC-27 is your local election headquarters. The only debate between Congressman Scott Perry and his challenger, Janelle Stelson, happened right here in the ABC-27 studio last night.
Speaker 5: And an interesting topic as the TV news anchor, turned political, challenger is facing a congressman that has held a seat since 2013. Term limits.
Speaker 6: Mr. Perry, in 2020, you signed a pledge for a term limit amendment that would give House members three terms.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 6: You are currently for your seventh term. How do you explain that…
Speaker 5: Perry responding every single bit of the way he has been a reformer, Tennis clarifying his answer.
Speaker 7: I signed on to the term limits. Absolutely, it can be three. Yeah.
Speaker 6: You could self term limit?
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah. Right. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Stelson, given the same question, using Senator Bob Casey as an example, who has been in the Senate for 18 years. Her response.
Speaker 8: Well, when you say you’re for term limits, you’re for term limits for everybody, a Democrat, Republican, independent, Scott Perry, Janelle Stelson. So yes, I’m for term limits.
Philip Blumel: I should point out that Representative Scott Perry is, as was mentioned in the clip, a pledge signer, and he is a pledge signer in good standing. I think the moderator was getting a little too clever and suggesting that if Scott Perry liked term limits so much, why doesn’t he just quit? Scott Perry, of course, has never promised to self-limit. He promised, in signing the US Term Limits Pledge, that he would co-sponsor and vote for the US Term Limits amendment, and he has consistently done, so thank you.
Philip Blumel: Next.
Philip Blumel: Let’s go back to the US Senate. While not seen as one of the eight tightest races in the Senate, here’s one that’s tightening unexpectedly. This is in Nebraska. In Nebraska, Senator Deb Fischer was elected 12 years ago, winning with about 57% of the vote, and she was elected six years later with a similar margin. But polls are showing the race is getting much closer as election day nears this year, and term limits are at the center of the campaign. Dan Osborn is a union leader and an independent candidate that samples are showing are neck and neck with Fischer right now. Osborn is going after her as a term limits scuffler.
Philip Blumel: It might sound odd because she did sign the US Term Limits Congressional Pledge 12 years ago. And yes, she did live up to it for a while. Recall that the pledge commits her to co-sponsor and vote for the US term limits amendment. And she did during her first term. But now, well, she no longer signs on to the term limits bills. A spokesperson for Senator Fischer has been doing damage control but only making things worse. Derek Oden told the National Journal in a statement that the Senator “supports term limits when they apply to everyone. Until they do, she plans to use her seniority to keep bringing home big wins for the state.”
Philip Blumel: Right. Well, naturally, the Term Limits amendment, that she used to support, would apply equally to everyone. And US Term Limits does not ask politicians to self-limit. When running for office in 2011, she committed in writing to co-sponsor and vote for the congressional term limits amendment, and now she isn’t. And her reason, she loves the seniority? No wonder independent Dan Osborn is resonating with voters when he says that Senator Fisher is a typical politician. Regarding term limits, she seems to be going out of her way to prove them right.
Philip Blumel: One last thing, on election day, in Montgomery County, South Carolina, voters will have the opportunity to approve 8-year term limits to replace the 12-year limits that currently exist on their county administrator. Here’s how supporters are framing the issue on the local TV.
Speaker 9: Presidents, governors, county executives, and mayors, what do many of them have in common? Most are limited to two terms in office. It’s time Montgomery County joins the fold and pass this Question A to bring two term limits for the Office of county executive. Two term limits ensure that new voices and new ideas are a part of our democracy, and that we all have a say in our future. That’s why two term limits are supported by most Americans as a good governance policy. Now you have the chance. Vote yes for Question A.
Philip Blumel: As the ad noted, 8-year term limits are the most common in time tested term limits in America. Voters tell pollsters they would like term limits even shorter, usually six years, and politicians when they aren’t trying to abolish them, claim to support 12-year term limits or more. This tug of war is nothing new. Out of it has sprung the 8-year term limit, America’s standard. If term limits are too long, we just don’t see the benefits they promise. One example of this phenomenon that comes immediately to mind is from a study done by Daniel Lewis and Robynn Kuhlmann of the University of Central Missouri a few years back. You can find it in the research archive at termlimits.com. Lewis and Kuhlmann looked at voter participation term limits. And what they found was that, yes, there is absolutely a connection between increased voter turnout and term limits. But you really only saw the effect, any effect, with shorter term limits, 6 and 8 years, not 12. The benefits of term limits just drop off the longer the term limit is. And it’s clear why, if you think about it, the great benefit of term limits is that they generate competitive open seat elections in every district.
Philip Blumel: Well, this occurs half as many times in a 12-year term limit situation than it does in a 6-year term limit situation. And these competitive open seat elections is what draws quality candidates out of the woodwork to run for office. Otherwise, what’s the point? And if that happens, then it gives voters a more meaningful voice at the ballot box. If there’s not a foregone conclusion in the election, as there is in most cases where there’s an incumbent versus a challenger, then the election has more meaning. And the more those elections you have, the more people will want to participate in them. With this in mind, it is my guess that the voters of Montgomery County, South Carolina, will be voting with enthusiasm on Question A.
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Philip Blumel: Thanks for joining us for another episode of No Uncertain Terms. The term limits convention bills are moving through the state legislatures. This could be a breakthrough year for the Term Limits Movement. To check on the status of the Term Limits convention resolution in your state, go to termlimits.com/takeaction. There, you will see if it has been introduced and where it stands in the committee process on its way to the floor vote. If there’s action to take, you’ll see a “Take Action” button by your state. Click it. This will give you the opportunity to send a message to the most relevant legislators, urging them to support the legislation. They have to know you’re watching. That’s termlimits.com/takeaction. If your state has already passed the term limits convention resolution or the bills have not been introduced in your state, you can still help. Please consider making a contribution to US Term Limits. It’s our aim to hit the reset button on the US Congress, and you can help. Go to termlimits.com/donate. Termlimits.com/donate. Thanks. We’ll be back next week.
Stacey Selleck: Find us on most social media at US Term Limits. Like us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and now, LinkedIn.
Speaker 10: USTL.