Why a Term Limits Convention Has Not, and Will Not Happen (It's Not What You Think!)
Yes, we don’t think a term limits convention will ever happen. The Founders certainly thought the states should propose amendments or they would never have written it into the U.S. Constitution. Of course, it’s easy to speculate about the unknown, but why bother when a term limits convention will never, ever happen?
Congress Will Never Let the States Dictate Their Term Limits. Period.
Even if 20 or 30 states were to adopt resolutions calling for a convention on term limits, it cannot happen. That is because Congress will pre-empt the states by proposing its own term limits amendment — one that grandfathers in all incumbents.
Congress understands that state lawmakers would be incentivized to propose term limits most conducive to creating job openings for themselves. Rather than allow states to decide its fate, Congress will step out in front of the convention effort and propose a term limits amendment itself.
And There Is Precedence Proving This.
The 22nd Amendment, which limits the president’s terms, was a congressional response to an effort by several states to hold an Article V Convention. That amendment, like any future term limits amendment, included grandfathering for the current officeholder — who at the time was Harry Truman.
The 17th Amendment, which enshrined the direct election of senators, was proposed by Congress in response to states that wanted to pass the amendment via convention. Despite 31 states calling for a convention to discuss direct election, that convention was never held because Congress pre-empted.
So Why Have States Call for a Convention at All?
One word: pressure.
Without at least the threat of a convention, Congress would lack any incentive to propose term limits. It’s an issue that cuts naturally against their self-interest.
State legislatures must pass the term limits convention resolution — not to get an actual convention, but to prompt Congress into action.